PSPI 2025, Anambra and the Peril of Manipulated Statistics

 

By Chuka Nnabuife | ANCISRO

NUMBERS carry enormous power. They clothe themselves with infallible authority, convincing the public that they reveal cold, hard truth. Yet statistics are never innocent. In the hands of unclean minds they can be manipulated so crudely to serve selfishly, even to the level of destroying beyond redemption whatever they tag. History is filled with shady characters and agencies that have done that. Somehow, they always eventually, fail in the ignoble beat. Nigerians may have just witnessed an example of such an ill-purposed misadventure.

Since I came across Philip Consulting Limited’s State Performance Index (pSPI) 2025 over the weekend, I have not been at ease. The rankings have left me asking myself troubling questions about how such very important statistics are framed, interpreted and weaponised without qualms.

The report covers Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. At first glance, one might imagine it to be a bold attempt at benchmarking efficiency. But on closer inspection, it is riddled with blurred facts, fuzzy scope and questionable analysis. What worries me most is that Philip Consulting Limited (PCL), a firm once known primarily for human resources consultancy, appears to have stepped into a territory where the stakes are political, the data are easily bent, and reputations are made or marred in a single chart.

Numbers carry enormous power. They clothe themselves with authority, convincing the public that they reveal cold, hard truth. Yet, as history shows, statistics are never innocent. They can just as easily mislead as enlighten. Unless read with deep scepticism, one risks mistaking theatre for truth.

 *From Promise to Controversy* 

When PCL launched its State Performance Index in 2019, it was pitched as an empirical yardstick to measure efficiency in Nigeria’s bureaucracy. At a time when the civil service was often described as sluggish and opaque, this seemed a welcome innovation. The idea was to replace conjecture with data, to spotlight inefficiency and spark reform.

For a brief period, the index gained influence. Its tables were quoted in policy circles, discussed in the media, and welcomed by citizens who longed for a more accountable public service. Yet, very quickly, cracks began to appear. By 2020 and 2022, labour unions and state governments were openly criticising the index for “inadequate samples” and “opaque weights.” What was meant to be neutral empiricism began to look partisan, even manipulative.

The 2025 edition has only deepened these suspicions. PCL claims that the rankings are based on four benchmarks — service delivery efficiency, citizen satisfaction, policy alignment and reform innovation. They say their analysis rests on a nationwide survey of 12,000 respondents, averaging about 330 per state. But the figures do not stand up to scrutiny. In the case of Anambra, the sample was reportedly fewer than 100 respondents. That is far too slim a pool to capture the breadth of reform in a state where youth development, digital innovation and employment programmes have touched tens of thousands of lives.

How could such a narrow dataset possibly reflect the One Youth, Two Skills Solution programme, which has empowered more than 13,000 young people with funding and mentorship? How could it capture the Solution Innovation District, where over 10,000 have gained digital skills? Or the more than 12,000 employed in health and education? Such reforms cannot simply vanish in the blind spots of a survey.

 *The Anambra Puzzle* 

Even more puzzling is the sharp plunge in Anambra’s ranking. In 2024, the state was placed eighth nationwide. Barely a year later, it is adjudged thirty-sixth, at the very bottom. What could have changed so radically, and so rapidly, to justify such a collapse?

The pSPI's timing only fuels suspicion. The report was released on the cusp of a gubernatorial election in Anambra. One is forced to ask whether politicking intruded into what ought to have been a neutral index. The coincidence is too conspicuous, the credibility too fragile.

Not surprisingly, the Anambra State government has dismissed the report as a “suspicious” document built on “an outdated lens.” Officials have urged Ndi Anambra to look around them and judge progress for themselves — in the new schools, hospitals, digital hubs, roads, and youth empowerment schemes that are visible in their communities.

PCL, for its part, has issued a rebuttal. The firm insists that no survey can satisfy every stakeholder and that its methodology undergoes peer review. It maintains that the index is intended as a mirror for reform, not a political weapon. Yet, in an election year, a poor score is no mere academic debate. For reformist states such as Anambra, where visible progress is being made under the Solution Government, optics matter as much as numbers.

 *History’s Warnings* 

This is not the first time statistics have been bent to serve various agenda. The world is littered with cautionary tales.

The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index was once gospel for investors. Yet in 2021, it was scrapped after revelations that data had been massaged to flatter certain countries, notably China. What had appeared to be a neutral, scientific measure of competitiveness turned out to be tainted by political interference.

In the corporate world, the collapse of Enron in 2001 stands as a warning. For years, its cooked financial statements inflated its glory, only for it to implode into one of history’s largest bankruptcies. The numbers dazzled Wall Street — until the truth emerged.

At a national level, Greece managed for a time to disguise its mounting debt in order to qualify for entry into the Euro zone. The façade eventually cracked, plunging Europe into its worst sovereign debt crisis in generations and leaving Greece with a devastated economy.

The Soviet Union, too, built its global image on inflated production statistics. For decades, it projected strength abroad even as its economy hollowed within. When the façade collapsed, so did the Union itself.

The common thread is stark: once numbers wear the cloak of authority, they can shape markets, sway politics and alter history. But when they are bent, it is not spreadsheets that suffer — it is societies, institutions and ordinary people.

 *A Fragile Instrument* 

The paradox of the pSPI 2025 is that it represents one of the few structured attempts to measure Nigeria’s public service productivity. In principle, such indexes can be valuable mirrors, prompting reform and holding governments to account. Yet, the credibility of any ranking depends on the rigour of its methods. Reliance on limited samples, opaque weighting and questionable timing leaves the pSPI fatally vulnerable to dispute.

The tragedy is that rather than fostering reform, it risks becoming a political football. States that score well trumpet their success, while those who fare poorly cry foul. Social media fills with noisy debates, but little reform follows.

History has shown what happens to indexes that lose credibility. They collapse under the weight of their own inconsistencies, leaving behind only cynicism. For states and ministries tempted to celebrate or even gloat in the flattering scores, the lesson is clear: numbers manipulated for short-term gain often bring long-term damage.

 *The Duty of Scepticism* 

Statistics ought to anchor truth. But as the examples of the World Bank, Enron, Greece and the Soviet Union remind us, they are easily bent. That is why every citizen, journalist and policymaker must read reports such as the pSPI with constant scepticism. Anambra may fall victim of such schemes now, who who it will be, next?

When numbers are skewed, societies — not spreadsheets — pay the price.

• *Nnabuife*, _Managing Director of the Anambra State Civic and Social Reformation Office (ANCISRO) writes from Awka_

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